Global transformations are changing the way people live. They are destroying the old foundations of how states and societies function. The U.S. National Intelligence Agency identifies major global trends that will affect our daily lives over the next 10-20 years. The response must be equally diverse and comprehensive. Solving big problems starts with small steps. Installment loans online for bad credit can be a step-by-step solution to your financial difficulties.
Demographic change and migration
The population is rapidly aging, and the proportion of young people is declining in the developed economies of Europe, North America, and East Asia. Birth rates are slowing, life expectancy is increasing in all developed countries, and after 2040, the population will start to shrink. This includes China, which may lose its status as the world’s most populous country to neighboring India after 2027, as well as the United States, Japan, and the EU. By 2040, the average age of the world’s population is expected to rise from 31 to 35 years, and the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to reach 25% of the total population in developed countries. At the same time, it is estimated that the average age of citizens in countries such as South Korea and Japan could reach 53 by 2040, and 47 in Europe.
At the same time, the proportion of young people of working age is increasing every year in the less developed countries of South Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Africa’s population is projected to double by 2050. By 2040, more than half of the population of South Asia alone will be of working age and will need jobs.
Most of these young people are unable to realize themselves in the weak, inefficient, and small local economies and are therefore often forced to migrate to the countries of Europe and the United States. The development of large cities is another factor that will affect the economic stability of young people and their opportunities. In many countries of the developing world, particularly in Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and the Middle East, urbanization over the past 30 years has led to enormous internal migration. Migration will also depend on whether these cities can accommodate large numbers of young people and provide them with basic conditions for development and self-realization.
Climate anomalies
The 2030s are expected to see an increase in abnormal and extreme natural events. These include hurricanes, droughts, melting glaciers, and floods. Most of these threats will affect countries where agriculture is important, as well as poor countries that lack strong institutions and infrastructure to protect themselves.
Economic transformation
The United States predicts rising foreign debt, fragmented trade, and economic areas, changing labor markets due to technological rivalry between major powers, and the emergence of new economic clusters and a creative workforce. Since 2007, almost every country has seen an increase in its external debt. The COVID-19 pandemic has led many countries to borrow even more. In the future, governments will either have to raise taxes or cut social services as a result of aging populations and demographic shifts. Both options will lead to social tensions.
Changing the relationship between government and society
Decades of scientific and technological development have made it possible to significantly improve the lives of most people on the planet. They’ve expanded their access to information, education, and health care and made it easier to travel to other countries. At the same time, these same innovations are slowly degrading the relationship between the ruling elite and society. They have acquired real tools to voice opinions, access data, and influence public opinion and politicians. Global problems have become more acute, and the inability of central governments to help them has led to distrust of governing institutions. In some countries, different social groups began to unite around their religious, ethnic, cultural, and ideological groups. All of this led to the rise of populist, nationalistic, and anti-elitist feelings that were at the heart of the protests of the past five to six years.
Changes in international relations
No single country will dominate the world completely by 2040. As a result, the international system will resemble a multipolar world. Regional centers of power will compete for influence, resources, and control. The need for strong, flexible, and situationally responsive regional alliances will increase in such a world. As the global struggle between China and the United States to dominate the world intensifies, regional countries will become more powerful and take control of regional issues that go unnoticed by the great powers.