The global economy enters 2022 in a worse position than previously expected. With the spread of the new strain of COVID-19 “omicron,” restrictions on movement are again being introduced in countries. Rising energy prices and supply disruptions have led to higher and broader inflation than expected, especially in the US and many emerging markets and developing economies. The continued slowdown in China’s real estate sector and a slower-than-expected recovery in private consumption also put pressure on growth prospects. COVID has shown us all the weaknesses of the modern world when each country is virtually independent in dealing with this threat and its consequences. And just as we began to enjoy traveling again, the Omicron strain forced a number of countries to close their borders.

Trends that Will Determine the Global Economy in 2022

At the beginning of 2021, the world economy was dependent on many unknowns, such as how effective new vaccines would be or what the consequences of outbreaks of new coronavirus strains would be. Fortunately, during the year, the impact of the pandemic was declining worldwide. Countries have resumed passenger services, weakened restrictive measures, and partially revived the most affected sectors of the economy (tourism, entertainment). On the other hand, developed countries with high immigration rates have suffered from the spread of new strains (Delta, Omicron), deepened supply chain problems, especially maritime freight, and regular infusions to eliminate the effects of the pandemic have created inflation around the world. Take a look at the main trends that may determine the economy in 2022:

• Falling birth rate. Declining birth rates have blocked global economic growth. The birth rate declined faster during the pandemic, including a sharp drop in China. In the long run, this trend will further reduce the world’s workforce. The working-age population is already declining in 51 countries.
• Debt trap. Global debt has been rising for four decades, but its level began to rise even faster during the pandemic. Twenty-five countries, including the United States and China, have a total debt of more than 300 percent of GDP. Money printed by central banks continues to “inflate” financial markets and deepen the debt trap.
• Supply chains will continue to be interrupted. And so it happened; sea freight became especially problematic. For example, in the second half of the year, there were queues of hundreds of boats in US ports.
• Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated during pregnancy. For example, states have tightened restrictions following the spread of new strains of the virus, such as Delta and Omicron.
• Access to quality lifelong learning is needed so that all citizens, regardless of age and identity, can contribute to society. It is also important for gaining knowledge of the environment and developing the technical and critical thinking needed for a stable future.
• Under the base case, the global economy is expected to grow by about 4.5% next year at market exchange rates, well above the longer-term average real GDP growth. Humanity is tired of living with the coronavirus. Tired of being afraid for your life and the lives of your loved ones, tired of restrictions and lockdowns.
• The partial lifting of fiscal support packages put in place to counter the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic is expected to begin this year. As a result of the wide-ranging fiscal response and last year’s output contraction, median public debt is projected to reach 54% of GDP by the end of 2022, almost 15 percentage points higher than in 2019.

Increasing Incidence, Disruption of the Economic Recovery Process, Rising Inflation of 2022

Economic growth is helping humanity to raise living standards, but socio-economic inequality is increasing, and the irrational use of resources is putting additional pressure on the environment. Climate change, declining birth rates (and consequently aging populations), the transformation of the family, the widespread penetration of digital technologies, the growth of civic awareness and activism, and so on. All of these are trends that are influencing and will continue to have an impact on what education should look like. Researchers call their two main tasks to prepare the education system for change and encourage society to think about the potential of education in order to form today the competencies and knowledge that will be in demand in the labor market in 10-40 years.